Khaemenes High · Biology 10

Grade 10 · Week 21 · U4

Probability, Pedigrees & Statistical Reasoning

Essential question: Why are inheritance predictions probabilistic rather than guarantees?

Standards: HS-LS3-380% mastery + correctionsPortfolio evidence

Open monday Deep Lesson · Model, Worked Example & Practice

Monday

Phenomenon / Launch

A small family can differ greatly from an expected Mendelian ratio.

Learning target

Build an initial model and explanation for: Why are inheritance predictions probabilistic rather than guarantees?

Evidence task

Record observations, questions, an initial model, and one claim that could be tested. Use these concepts where relevant: pedigree; probability; sample size; expected vs observed; sex-linked.

Open tuesday Deep Lesson · Model, Worked Example & Practice

Tuesday

Concept & Model Revision

Study and explain the week's core ideas: pedigree; probability; sample size; expected vs observed; sex-linked

Reading

Teacher-approved fictional or historical pedigrees.

Evidence task

Revise Monday's model. Add two evidence-backed annotations and explain one limitation or uncertainty.

Open wednesday Deep Lesson · Model, Worked Example & Practice

Wednesday

Data & Quantitative Reasoning

Use product/sum rules and simple chi-square conceptually.

Evidence task

Show units, setup, calculation or graph reasoning, then write what the quantitative evidence can and cannot establish about: Why are inheritance predictions probabilistic rather than guarantees?

Open thursday Deep Lesson · Model, Worked Example & Practice

Thursday

Investigation / Engineering

Anonymous/published pedigree interpretation; no family medical inference.

Safety boundary

Use the course safety charter. If supervision, facilities, materials, or conditions are not appropriate, use the supplied-data/simulation alternative rather than improvising hazardous procedures.

Evidence task

Record variables or design constraints, procedure/model, observations/data, and one revision you would make after reviewing the evidence.

Open friday Deep Lesson · Model, Worked Example & Practice

Friday

CER / Synthesis

Answer the essential question: Why are inheritance predictions probabilistic rather than guarantees?

Mastery evidence

Submit a claim, at least two specific pieces of evidence, reasoning that connects them, one limitation/counterclaim, and a correction note for any essential concept below 80%.

Portfolio

Select one artifact from this week and explain why it is trustworthy evidence of growth.