KHAEMENES ACADEMY · BIOLOGY 10 · WEEK 28 · DAY 05

Population-Genetics Simulation & Synthesis

Track allele frequencies across generations and defend mechanism claims with uncertainty.

Safety and evidence boundary

Use fictional populations, cards, spreadsheets, or published aggregate data. Do not use population-genetic concepts to rank human groups or infer personal ancestry, intelligence, worth, or disease. Evolutionary mechanisms are population-level processes.

Explicit science instruction

A simulation can isolate mechanisms by changing one parameter at a time. Record initial frequencies, population size, migration, fitness assumptions, mutation setting and random seed/rule where possible. Multiple runs reveal stochastic variability.

Worked example with reasoning

Ten drift-only runs from p=.5 produce different final p values. Adding strong directional selection shifts the distribution of outcomes upward, but drift still creates variation among runs. Evidence comes from the distribution across replicates, not one lucky trajectory.

Guided question

Why are replicate simulation runs necessary for stochastic evolutionary models?

Independent work

  1. Run or analyze at least 10 trajectories.
  2. Graph allele frequency by generation.
  3. Compare one mechanism treatment with control.
  4. Write a CER naming mechanism and uncertainty.

Spiral retrieval bridge

Try these from memory before reopening earlier lessons. Then check your reasoning and record one correction if needed.

  1. From Week 19: which meiotic mechanisms create new allele combinations before population processes act?
  2. From Week 21: why does finite sampling matter when estimating an allele frequency?
  3. If 120 of 200 allele copies are A, calculate p(A) and q(a).
  4. Correct this statement: “Any allele-frequency increase proves natural selection.”

Retrieval is formative. The goal is durable connection across units, not a separate grade.

Misconception check

A simulation demonstrates consequences of its rules, not proof that a real population followed the same history.

Formative understanding check

What does a spread of outcomes across identical simulation rules demonstrate?

Worked response

Stochastic variation generated by the model.

Open-book formative practice only; not an official mastery attempt or grade.

Mentor evidence conference

Ask Archaemenes to challenge whether your population-level claim follows from the data and whether alternative evolutionary mechanisms remain possible.

Open Archaemenes

Teacher guidance

Foundation: use supplied trajectories. Core: compare replicated treatments. Extended: evaluate identifiability when several mechanisms can create similar patterns.

Preserve learning evidence

Keep calculations, graphs, models, corrections and limitations in the matching Week 28 evidence field.