Explicit capstone instruction
The model should produce a number, curve, range, or threshold that can be tested.
Assumptions belong beside the model; hidden assumptions make later mismatch difficult to interpret.
Uncertainty can come from measurement resolution, parameter estimates, idealizations, and trial variation.
Vocabulary: prediction; parameter; assumption; uncertainty; testable model.
Worked example
A model predicts 3.2 s ±0.3 s. A measured result of 3.4 s is consistent with the prediction range; 5.1 s would demand explanation or revision.
Guided question
Choose one equation/model and identify which inputs dominate its uncertainty.
Independent work
- Write the predictive relation.
- Estimate parameter values.
- State an expected range.
- Identify two uncertainty sources.
Misconception check
A precise-looking prediction is not automatically accurate if its assumptions are weak.
Formative check
What makes a model genuinely testable?
Reveal response
It produces a measurable prediction before the test is run.
Mentor evidence conference
Ask Archaemenes to challenge system boundaries, predictions, uncertainty, and whether revisions follow the evidence.
Teacher guidance
Foundation: Use a prediction-range frame.
Core: Quantify assumptions and uncertainty.
Extended: Perform sensitivity analysis on key parameters.