Grade 12 · Week 05 · Wednesday · Day 03

Fit a Line or Fit a Curve?

Learning objective: Compare least-squares linear and quadratic models, RMSE, and holdout prediction.

45–60 minutes · Offline-capable · Public practice, not a supervised examination

Read and reason

Two equations, different complexity

A linear position model has two coefficients: b and m in x=b+mt. A quadratic model has three: b, m and c in x=b+mt+ct². With uniformly accelerated ideal one-dimensional motion, c=a/2. If data are approximately linear, the simpler model may generalize well and preserve a straightforward interpretation. If data clearly curve, a quadratic may fit better within the domain.

Least squares is a calculation, not magic

For each candidate model, choose coefficients that minimize the sum over training points of (observed x − predicted x)². Squaring gives larger errors more influence and removes sign cancellation. The Model Detective computes normal-equation least-squares fits for provided well-conditioned sample times. It is not a general-purpose statistical package; do not apply it uncritically to large ill-conditioned datasets.

Why reserve the last observation?

If every measured value is used to choose the coefficients and then the same data are scored, flexibility generally helps the quadratic model. The studio therefore fits only the first five points and compares predictions on the sixth point at t=5 s. That sixth measurement is a very small validation sample and should not be overinterpreted; it demonstrates the principle of testing predictions outside the fitted observations.

Interpret the fitted physics

For a quadratic fit x=b+mt+ct², initial position is b, initial velocity is m and modeled constant acceleration is a=2c, provided the time origin is t=0 and the observed motion truly follows constant acceleration. A fitted linear slope m approximates constant velocity. Neither formula can establish friction, drag or force mechanisms without additional physical evidence.

Vocabulary in context

least squares
A fitting method minimizing the sum of squared residuals on training observations.
RMSE
Root mean square error: the square root of the mean squared residual.
holdout
A data point reserved from model fitting to test prediction.
parameter
A number defining a model, such as slope or acceleration coefficient.
overfitting
Explaining data-specific noise instead of a useful general relationship.

Use every term in a short original sentence or model explanation.

Worked example

If a fitted model has x=1.0+1.9t+0.55t² (m), then v0≈1.9 m/s and a≈2×0.55=1.10 m/s². If RMSE is 0.08 m, compare it with data resolution and holdout error; do not treat it as exact acceleration proof.

Show substitutions, signs and SI units in your own notebook.

Independent science notebook

Run both model fits with one dataset. Record training RMSE, holdout prediction error, and an interpretation of m and c. Justify whether the extra quadratic parameter is warranted.

Your work stays in the local browser when possible. Export your notebook for backup.

Daily retrieval practice · four questions

Open-book practice with feedback and an 80% correction target. Randomized answers do not constitute a confidential official exam.

Continue

Select an artifact for your evidence portfolio. Explain what it supports and one factor it cannot establish.